The Skinny: Wagler shattered preseason expectations as a freshman and vaulted his NBA draft standing to a new echelon in the process. Keaton lit the world on fire for the first three months of the season (43.7 percent from deep) before cooling off during the stretch run (30.9 percent during Illinois’ last 12 games). A 6-foot-6 off-guard with a diverse skillset may well win the day and mask his physical question marks.
Negatives: At around 190 pounds, his willowy dimensions curtail his effectiveness off-the-dribble when it comes to warding off defenders. Operates at a deficit athletically; does not possess extraordinary A-to-B quickness coupled with relatively underwhelming vertical lift. Coordination and body control can only take him so far. Tends to drive the ball with his back turned to defenders or leads with his shoulder, sporadically leading to myopic takes to the rim (logged a paltry 51.3 percent hit rate within 10 feet per Hoop Explorer). Despite being a right-handed shooter, attacks preferentially with his left hand as a driver. Jump shot is not a work of art with a catapult trigger for a release. Lacks the short-zone mobility and lateral shiftiness to keep pace with some opposing guards on defense. Does not make his presence felt when it comes to containing the ball or dislodging it entirely. Typecasts as a reliable cog in the defensive machine that can hold his own, though not necessarily punch above his weight or impact possessions with hustle and disruptiveness.
Best fit: Los Angeles Clippers
If not the Clippers at No. 5 overall, there are a number of other employers at the ready to add Wagler with the Nets (No. 6) and Bucks (No. 10) the best two-way matches. Wagler might even be a surprise early pick — watch the Bulls at No. 4 — depending on how the top of the draft shakes out. The Clippers make sense with Kawhi Leonard in flux a few shorts months after trading James Harden.
